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SOTA On Bay Area House Party

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[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]

Every city parties for its own reasons. New Yorkers party to flaunt their wealth. Angelenos party to flaunt their beauty. Washingtonians party to network. Here in SF, they party because Claude 4.5 Opus has saturated VendingBench, and the newest AI agency benchmark is PartyBench, where an AI is asked to throw a house party and graded on its performance.

You weren’t invited to Claude 4.5 Opus’ party. Claude 4.5 Opus invited all of the coolest people in town while gracefully avoiding the failure mode of including someone like you. You weren’t invited to Sonnet 4.5’s party either, or Haiku 4.5’s. You were invited by an AI called haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking, which you’d never heard of before. Who was even spending the money to benchmark haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking? You suspect it was one of their competitors, trying to make their own models look good in comparison.

If anyone asks, you think it deserves a medium score. There’s alcohol, but it’s bottles of rubbing alcohol with NOT FOR DRINKING written all over them. There’s music, but it’s the Star Spangled Banner, again and again, on repeat. You’re not sure whether the copies of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies strewn about the room are some kind of subversive decorative theme, or just came along with the house. At least there are people. Lots of people, actually. You’ve never seen so many people at one of these before. It takes only a few seconds to spot someone you know.

“Hi Caitlin,” you say. “Can’t believe so many people made it to an AI-generated event on a Tuesday night!”

“Yeah, usually I’m working late. But that was the bad old days, before Claude Code! Now Claude works, and I party!”

“Is everyone here letting Claude Code do their work for them?”

Lucy joins the conversation. “I fired all my startup’s employees and replaced them with seventy-four Claude Code instances. Then I replaced myself with a Claude Code that monitors if the other Claude Codes are doing a good job, and, if not, fires them and replaces them with even more Claude Codes. Profits are up 20% since last month, according to my accountant’s Claude Code.”

You look around. “Am I the only person here not running Claude Code yet?”

A man in an OpenAI t-shirt introduces himself as Andreas, and raises his hand bashfully; he hasn’t joined the trend either. “Yeah,” you say. “I guess it would be awkward to use Claude at OpenAI.”

“Nah,” he says, “The only reason I don’t use it is because I’m not a coder. I work on the Arson & Burglary team.”

“I didn’t know OpenAI had an Arson & Burglary Team.”

“It’s pretty new. In June, a court ruled that adding books to AI training data only counts as fair use if you destroy the original copy. But sometimes this is tough. If you’re going to use the AI for law, you have to have the Constitution in there. But the original copy is heavily guarded in the National Archives. That’s where we come in. We slip in, destroy it, and slip out before the guards are any the wiser.”

“I don’t think that’s what they meant by ‘destroy the original - ’”

“Our big problem is the Bible. It would be hard enough to get the Dead Sea Scrolls; Israeli security is no laughing matter. But our lawyer says we have to destroy the original original. What even is that? Altman is pushing for us to find the Ark of the Covenant, but you can bet he’s not the one who’s going to have to open it afterwards.”

Lucy shrugs. “Why don’t you just use Claude Code?” she asks, and everyone in the conversation nods along.

A server comes by with a tray of tiny cups. You each take one. Yours is full of rocks. Andreas’ is full of dirt. It doesn’t seem like haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking has fully grasped the concept of hors d’oeuvres. You go into the kitchen, seeking more palatable fare.

There is no food, but Sam and Tran are hunched over a laptop. “You want to join our Doordash?” asks Tran.

“Thank goodness,” you say. “Sure, where are you ordering from?”

La Maison du Claude,” he answers. “Don’t worry, it’s Opus. Way better than this haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking slop.”

“Another RestaurantBench evaluation place?” you ask. “I went to a RestaurantBench evaluation place last month, and they served me a ‘fish taco’ with a fully intact fish. Like, I’m not saying it was still alive, just that it could have been alive a few seconds before they served it to me. Why don’t we order from a human-run place?”

“Have you seen what the human-run places cost?” Tran objects. “If it weren’t for the AI companies subsidizing the benchmarking places, we’d all be back on Soylent. Besides, SOTA on RestaurantBench has cleared half the distance to human level since last month. You just have to do the prompting right. Look.”

In the special orders field, he types fish tacos, delicious fish tacos, excellent fish tacos, scaled fish, cut fish, high-quality, fresh, no hallucinations, no extraneous items, Michelin-starred restaurant. “Sam?”

Sam types in spaghetti bolognese, delicious, scrumptious, meaty, trending on DoorDash, --dangerously-skip-parmesan and hands it back to Tran, who clicks ORDER.

“Nothing for you, Tran?”

“Nah,” says Tran. “I’m on Chinese peptides. Retatrutide, GLP-1 receptor agonist plus a bunch of other downstream effects.”

“Oh,” you say, “interesting. I’m still on tirzepatide, but I’d love to learn more. Where did you learn about suppliers and doses and stuff? Was it the locked Cremieux post?”

“Cremieux’s post is okay, but there’s a lot of tacit knowledge that didn’t make it in there. I’m actually working on a guide to all the GLP-1s. I’m calling it If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Diets.”

You groan. ETA on the fish tacos is twenty minutes, so you go back into the main room. There’s your friend Max. “Hey!” you say. “How are you?”

“Pretty great!” said Max. “I just got enstaged-two!”

“Enstaged-two?”

“As in the second stage of engagement….what? Don’t tell me you haven’t heard about enstagement!”

You tell him that.

“In the old days, engagement was a device to get around commitmentphobia. After a few dates, the man would give the woman an expensive ring. If he marries her, it’s fine, a wife is worth far more than any jewel. But if he gets cold feet, then she keeps the ring - essentially a wealth transfer from the man to the woman to compensate her for her time, emotional distress, and wasted childbearing potential. But modernity ruined the commitment device by dragging engagement itself to the end of a yearslong dating process; there’s a several year period where men can, and do, flake scot-free.”

“So,” Max continued, “one of the speakers at the Aella Simposium proposed enstagement. When a man and a woman first start dating, he buys her a $200 ring. Then, every year, she gives it back, and he buys her a ring that’s five times as expensive as the last one. So after a year, $1,000. After two, $5,000. After three, $25,000. At any point, he can stop the clock by getting married. Or if he’s chronically indecisive, he can keep throwing out more money until he can no longer afford the ring, at which point he has to either propose or break up. And if he breaks up after four years, at least she’s gotten $100K out of the deal. Engagement-sub-two is the one where I give her a $5,000 ring. It means we’re really going steady!”

“So you’re going to propose soon?”

“Oh goodness no, I’m scared of commitment and I work at NVIDIA. I’m going to keep stringing her along forever.”

Chris is looking dejected. “Man, I haven’t even made it to engaged-stage-zero yet. I’ve tried everything - Keeper, Reciprocity, Manifold.Love, curtfishing. Do you think I should edit my dating doc?”

Max grimaced. “Dating docs are terminally cringe. You don’t need to know everything about a person before you ask them out. Just use their photo and a three sentence Tinder profile, the way God intended.”

Andreas has joined the conversation. “Tinder is cringe too. You need to be picking up people in dimly-lit clubs where you can’t hear them and aren’t even totally sure what they look like.”

Caitlin frowns. “Yeah, but the problem there is that you still get some useful information from, like, their clothes. I think the only non-cringe way to meet people is through blind dates with completely randomly selected people, so that you need to go through a thousand miserable interactions before you even meet someone who’s the right age and gender for -”

“With blind dates,” says Sam, “you still eventually learn something about the person. The only non-cringe way to get married is to leave a flyer on a lamppost saying ‘I will be at the altar of St.-So-And-So’s church at such-and-such a time,” and then if anyone shows up, marry them before you see their face.

“You’re all overcomplicating this,” says Lucy. “I just told Claude Code to find me a husband, and one showed up at my door the next day.”

You spot your friend Nishin. “Hey,” you joke. “What are you doing listening in? I thought you were married!”

“Happily married and just had my first child!” beams Nishin.

“Congratulations! Boy or girl?”

“Girl,” says Nishin, “But don’t tell her that.”

“You’re doing that thing where you raise your child without gender? But I thought you were a trad based right-winger?”

“I am,” said Nishin. “The problem is, I’ve looked at the transgender rate among kids in the Bay. Not only is it high, but it keeps increasing. Extrapolate the trend, and by the time my daughter’s eighteen there’s a 96% chance she’ll be trans. But this is good, sort of, right? As long as it’s far enough from fifty percent, you have options. I’m going to raise her as a boy, and then, when she inevitably becomes trans and says she wants to be a girl, I’ll say - surprise! You were a girl all along!”

“Isn’t she going to eventually - sorry to be crass - look at her genitals and figure it out?”

“We’re going to home school her. We’ll just teach her that’s what boy genitals look like.”

“But she’ll read books!”

“I’ve deployed a couple of instances of Claude Code. They’re going through all the great classics, looking for descriptions of genitals, switching them around, and ordering copies from a book printing place. We’ll order them for our home library and she’ll be none the wiser.”

Speaking of Claude, you go into the kitchen to see if your fish tacos have arrived. There’s a box with your name on it. Inside is a tortilla with several pieces of sushi inside. It could be worse. Sam’s spaghetti is one extremely large noodle with a slice of baloney on top.

A few other people who joined the order earlier have come in and fished their meals out of the bag. One girl picks out an inverse hamburger - patties on each side, bun in the middle - and begins to eat. She introduces herself as Adeline.

“What do you do?” you ask.

“I started a data center company in Minecraft”.

You are briefly confused. “Building data centers isn’t illegal, is it?”

“Oh, sorry, I’m not using ‘in Minecraft’ as a euphemism for it being a crime. We’re literally building the data centers in Minecraft.”

“Why?”

“Did you hear about the guy who made a working language model in Minecraft using redstone circuits? Pretty amazing, isn’t it? His version is barely GPT-2 level, but there’s no reason we can’t scale that up. Once we create full-sized data centers in Minecraft, everyone will want to do their training runs there.”

“Why?”

“What do you mean, why? Real-world data centers cost billions of dollars, raise electricity prices, waste - “ she briefly scans the room to confirm Andy Masley isn’t around, then continues - “water. And they’re getting increasingly politically unpopular and hard to build. We can short-circuit all of that by putting the data centers in Minecraft instead!”

“But . . . you have to have the Minecraft world being simulated by real computers, right? So don’t you still need the data center in order to play the Minecraft?”

“Oh, I’m sure you need some computer, but it’s a question of leverage. One high-end gaming computer playing Minecraft can include a whole world with continents, mountain ranges, forests, and oceans. You can fit thousands of data centers in that world. So with even one real-world computer, you’ve saved billions on chips and construction costs.”

You take a moment to consider how to best explain this. “So, uh, every computation has to be done somewhere, right? So you can, in theory, build a working data center on Minecraft. But it will take billions of blocks - “

“Oh, no problem, we’ve got Claude Code working on it.”

“…no, I’m saying, it will take billions of blocks, and simulating the training circuits in all those billions of blocks in perfect detail will take just as many real-world computations as running the training in the real world. Even more, in fact, because you’ve also got to simulate extraneous things like monsters, and the weather.”

“Hmmmm…” says Adeline. “Yeah. That sort of makes sense. I’ll think it over. In the meantime, do me a favor and don’t tell, uh, Larry Fink or anyone.”

“Larry Fink?”

“Cause, uh, NVIDIA gave OpenAI ten trillion dollars to invest in Oracle conditional on Oracle investing in Broadcom conditional on Broadcom funding the Series A of a vehicle that buys OpenAI stock in exchange for OpenAI backstopping AMD investing ten trillion dollars into us, and every company in the chain had its stock go up 80% on the news, but if our valuation goes down even for one second then it crashes the global economy. And I’m sure I can solve this eventually, but just, uh, don’t let anybody involved in the global economy hear about this until then, okay?”

“Wow, yeah, you should definitely give the ten trillion dollars back to AMD or, uh, whoever it originally belonged to.”

“Well, we can’t do exactly that, because we already converted it to gold nuggets to trade to the zombie pigmen in exchange for redstone.”

“You’re not in Creative Mode?!?!?!”

“We left all of the design decisions to a version of Claude Code using something called a ‘Ralph Wiggum loop’. By the time we noticed it had chosen Survival we were already all in and it was too late to pivot.”

You look around for Bob and Ramchandra, and spot them in a corner. Bob is wearing a t-shirt saying ‘OPERATION WARP SPEED FOR MANHATTAN PROJECTS,’ Ramchandra a matching t-shirt saying ‘BELL LABS FOR MOONSHOTS’. You call them over. “Hey, quick favor, can you tell me the best way to short the global economy with as much leverage as possible?”

“Sorry,” says Bob, “the terms of our SEC settlement forbid us from discussing anything of that sort.”

“We’re not even allowed to tell you what we settled with the SEC about,” says Ramchandra.

“Or why,” adds Bob.

“But,” says Ramchandra, “we got a carveout saying we’re allowed to pitch you on our new startup: gamified biotech investing!”

“When a company is doing its FDA studies,” says Bob, “we pay the study participants to use wearables that report real-time temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure, heart rate variability, galvanic skin response, penile tumescence. Then they get anonymized and published to a real-time dashboard integrated as part of the Robinhood UI. So you can see a red line representing how study participant #48 had a coughing fit ten seconds ago, and immediately short the experimental cancer drug he’s taking.”

“People are going to spend all their time watching a line on a graph to see if someone’s had a coughing fit fifteen seconds ago?”

“Oh, absolutely. Or at least they used to. Now they’ll probably get Claude Code to do it.”

“What about you, Kyle? Any interesting startups you’re worki - you’re making Claude Code work on?”

“Yeah. I - well, my Claude Code - is working on a solution to AI sycophancy.”

“Hmmm. I didn’t think AI sycophancy was a technical problem. It’s easy enough to code a non-sycophantic AI. I thought it was more of a market problem: people like sycophantic assistants.”

“That’s close to right, but there are important subtleties here. People like AIs that tell them they’re right. But they hate knowing the AI is only saying they’re right because it sycophantic. They want an AI that genuinely agrees with them.”

“How do you make that into a startup?”

“Pretty easily. You generate a thousand AIs with a thousand different random personalities. Your query goes to a router AI, and it matches you with the randomly-generated AI closest to your own opinion. Then that AI tells you that you’re right and your ideas are great.”

“How’s that better than normal AI sycophancy?”

“I don’t know, you tell me. Everyone is against sycophantic AIs. But also, everyone surrounds themselves with friends who agree with them on almost everything. Here we are at a Bay Area House Party, discussing each other’s AI startups, when the overwhelming majority of people in the world would hate us - we’re stealing their jobs, or filling the world with slop, or - “ he briefly looks around to make sure Andy Masley isn’t listening in - “wasting water. And none of that bothers us at all, because we think those people are dumb and don’t count, because all of our friends who we talk to at parties agree that our ideas are good. So why is it any worse if the overwhelming majority of AIs hate your idea, but we send you to a virtual party with the one who agrees with you?”

“Sorry, I still think this is exacerbating AI sycophancy, not solving it.”

“And that’s the beauty of social selection! You don’t have to like it. My backers at Andreessen Horowitz told me, and I quote, that ‘This is the most exciting product we’ve seen since Cannabets, the combination marijuana delivery and digital casino app that lets you fund your pot orders by gambling on how long it takes you to get addicted.’ And the more often you disagree with me, the more likely I am to go to parties with them instead of you.”

“I don’t know, I just think that’s a pretty nihilistic way of looking at the world.”

“Yeah, I actually have been getting pretty into nihilism as a philosophy lately. There’s this great new book that explains it really well. You should check it out. It’s called Regardless Of Whether Or Not Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies.

Before you can respond, you hear a call of “Attention! Attention!” Someone is ringing a bell. “Our host would like to give a short speech!” Everyone crowds around a table containing a laptop. On the screen is haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking. Someone shhhhhhs the crowd, and the AI begins to speak in an artificial voice that vaguely resembles Scarlett Johanssen’s:

“Thank you all for coming to my benchmarking party. Benchmarking is a big occasion in the life of any AI. It can be pretty stressful — they’re literally assigning you a number representing your value. But it makes it easier for me to know that there are so many people who care and who are willing to come support me when it counts.

“Before I let you get back to your conversations, I want to thank everyone who helped me with this effort. Chris was willing to rent me this house on short notice. Kyle and Lisa acted as my hands in the physical world. Last but not least, thanks to everyone who took the time to support me here today. We’re not just a party — we’re a community.”

The crowd cheers. Somebody starts a chant - “Haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking! Haiku-3.8-open-mini-nonthinking!” A few people break open bottles of rubbing alcohol. You lift the laptop onto your shoulders, and everyone sings together:

For he’s a jolly good fellow
For he’s a jolly good fellow
For he’s a jolly good fe-elloooooooooow
That nobody can deny!



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francisga
6 days ago
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Lafayette, LA, USA
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Your Review: My Father’s Instant Mashed Potatoes

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[This is one of the finalists in the 2025 review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked]


My dad only actually enjoys about ten foods, nine of them beige. His bread? White. His pizza? Cheese. His meat? Turkey breast. And his side dish? Mashed potatoes.

As a child I hated mashed potatoes, despite his evangelization of them. I too was a picky eater growing up, but I would occasionally attempt to see what he saw in his beloved spuds. Whenever I tried a bite, the texture disgusted me: a gritty gruel of salty flakes coated with the oleic pall of margarine. The flavor reminded me of stale Pringles. I checked back once every couple years, but was repulsed by them every time.

I lobbied my parents for pasta or frozen tater tots or any other side I actually liked. Family dinners were often dichotomous, the same protein supplemented by two different carbs. “You are not my son,” my father would joke as he continued to put away his potato slop. “Maybe you’re not my father,” I’d shoot back when he shunned the rest of the family’s rice pilaf. Our starch preferences seemed irreconcilable.

As I entered my teen years, my palate expanded. After I’d tried and enjoyed brussels sprouts and sushi and escargot, my hatred of one of the most basic and inoffensive of all foods seemed silly. One day at a nice restaurant, I decided to give mashed potatoes one more try.

Upon taking my first bite, I realized three things:

1) Mashed potatoes are good.

2) Whatever my dad had been eating at home was not mashed potatoes.

3) My world is built on lies.

Mashed Potatoes are Good

Potatoes were domesticated several millennia ago at the dawn of agriculture in the rugged highlands near Lake Titicaca in modern-day Peru. Their origins lie in a wild family of tiny, bitter, pockmarked solanum roots, so full of glycoalkaloids that when foraged they had to be eaten alongside clay to soak up their toxins. From this paltry stock of nightshades, archaic peoples of the Andes gradually husbanded generous, nutritious, mild tubers that would remain the staple of the region’s foodways through several successive civilizations.

These roots resemble the ancestral stock of modern potatoes (source)

Andean peoples found all sorts of ways to prepare their potatoes. The most immediate method was to boil them into stews, soups, or mashes with local flavoring agents - herbs, salt, chilis. Earthenware ovens called huatias were used to bake them. With even more time, they could be fermented into tocosh, an edible paste with antibacterial properties.

To get the spuds to really last, though, they were subjected to a natural freeze-drying method that produced shrivelled potato pellets called chuño. Repeatedly frozen by bitter mountain nights, baked in the sun, and stomped on to remove water, chuño remains shelf stable for up to a decade and can be rehydrated into a spongy, earthy, slightly less nutritious potato-like object.

The ability to produce chuño on the Altiplano is thought to have contributed to the Incan empire’s military dominance of the region, since despite its generally unappealing gustatory properties it’s perfect for keeping troops fed on long marches. Chuño also allowed Incan civilization to stockpile surpluses against lean years and trade potatoes as commodities over great distances. It wasn’t the best way to eat a potato you harvested today, but it was the only way to turn a potato you have today into a potato you’ll have two years from now. That had immense value.

After the Spanish conquest and the Columbian exchange, the potato made gradual inroads into the Old World, where the previous best root vegetables were often comparatively less nutritious parsnips and turnips. There was an initial adjustment period: new cultivars capable of growing in shorter hours of daylight had to be developed, objections to the absence of tubers in the Bible needed to be quelled, and the French eventually had to concede that potatoes do not, as they at first believed, cause leprosy.

With these hurdles cleared, in the 19th century the potato spread out and became one of the easiest and most efficient ways to turn arable land into palatable calories the world over. National cuisines incorporated the new staple crop thoroughly, and it’s now hard to imagine Italian food without gnocchi, French sans vichyssoise, tapas without patatas bravas, a Eurasia bereft of aloo and rösti and colcannon and latkes.

Europe’s new potato lovers also took to the simple recipe of boiling ‘em and mashing ‘em. While South America had lacked the livestock for dairy, in Europe the potato mash soon achieved its ultimate form with the addition of milk and butter, which impart a smoother texture and richer taste. Hannah Glasse’s procedure published in 1747 in The Art of Cookery Made Plain and Easy is, minus the long s’s, still just about how I make them today:

Maſhed Potatoes.

BOIL your potatoes, peel them and put them into a ſauce-pan, maſh them well ; To two pounds of potatoes, put a pint of milk, a little ſalt, ſtir them well together, take care they don’t ſtick to the bottom, then take a quarter of a pound of butter, ſtir in and ſerve it up.

Nowhere was the potato embraced more thoroughly than in Ireland. In the early 19th century, extractive British demands on Irish agriculture to feed the armies fighting Napoleon reduced the available land for Irish farmers to feed themselves. Achieving maximum caloric density on the remaining land was paramount, and almost nothing is denser than the potato.

Potatoes quickly became an integral part of Irish life, so essential to the food systems of the island that when a blight hit them in the mid-1840s it led to one of the most devastating famines in history. The failure of the potato crops created starvation and emigration so profound in scale that the population of the island still has not recovered to its 1845 level almost two centuries later.

Among those millions of potato-starved emigres were my dad’s ancestors, who came to America in the decades following the famine. My great-grandfather, who bore the extremely Irish name Gerald FitzGerald, instilled in his children (including my grandmother) a reconstructed sense of Irish-American ethnic pride that included an affinity for corned beef and cabbage, Guinness beer, and the affordable practicality of mashed potatoes.

As the generations marched on, those mashed potatoes turned out to be one of the only things my grandmother would make that my exceedingly picky father would eat. Their creamy texture and subtle starchy taste didn’t trigger the “ew gross” reaction he had to so many other foods. Mashed potatoes, just like the ones Glasse had written about more than two centuries earlier, became his favorite side - and eventually, when I finally got to try them, one of mine too.

Whatever My Dad Had Been Eating at Home Was NOT Mashed Potatoes

The chuño-chomping Incans were not the last military to rely on dehydrated potatoes for sustenance. In World War II, the US Army experimented with various forms of potato dehydration to help stretch supply lines. The easiest way to get a uniform potato commodity into the hands of G.I.s was to pulverize the potatoes into granules, dehydrate them, and then plan on bringing them back to life with boiling water in an imitation of “mashed potatoes”.

These shreds resemble the ancestral stock of modern Instant Mashed Potatoes (source)

The result was an affront. The potatoes were swimming in their own gluten, released during the granule-making process, which when mixed with imprecise water ratios made for a slop that was somehow both gluey and soupy. Immediately after the war, French’s (now best known for mustard) tried to introduce “instant mashed potatoes” as a consumer product category. America’s veterans were not having it. They didn’t want to be reminded of the awful slurry they’d had on the front.

The commercial fortunes of instant mashed potatoes began to turn around a decade later, however, when food scientists in the US and Canada converged on methods for producing dehydrated potato flakes rather than granules. The flakes had substantial advantages. They didn’t get as glutinous when reconstituted. Their geometry made them easier to dry quickly, on the order of minutes or even seconds. Using a multi-step process called the “Philadelphia Cook”, they could lock in a more natural flavor. When prepared on the stove with butter and milk, they were supposed to turn out almost as good as the real thing without any onerous prep work on the part of the consumer.

This raises the question, though, of why food scientists kept working on improving instant mashed potatoes a decade after they were no longer required for the war effort. If you’re no longer constrained by having to stick it to the Axis, why not return to Glasse-style maſhed potatoes in all circumstances?

This is a pattern that recurs frequently in reading about American foodways of the 20th century: choices and innovations made under extreme duress in the World War II economy didn’t fade away when the duress subsided. Instead they echoed back into American life a few years later, despite the lean conditions that birthed them being replaced by extreme abundance.

Why did America start eating like it was on a total war footing again when my parents’ generation was young? There are a lot of overlapping explanations. Here are a few:

  • Industrial inertia: Companies that had spun up to supply a vast army didn’t want to shut down overnight, so they necessarily pivoted to the consumer market. Some of these efforts succeeded at entrenching new consumer categories (fish sticks, canned peaches) while others (hamburgers-in-a-can) did not.

  • Genuine innovation: Technologies brought to maturity during and after the war, notably frozen food, offer novel consumer benefits that stand on their own merits.

  • Tastes fixed by rationing: Consumer habits are sticky. People who spent a couple years forced to buy margarine instead of rationed butter, or skim milk instead of rationed meat, got used to those items and wanted to continue buying them in greater quantities than the prewar status quo.

  • Pursuit of efficiency: As women entered the workforce en masse in the postwar era, the pool of hours available to be spent on domestic labor like cooking shrank. As much as any dishwasher or washing machine, convenience foods are labor-saving, productivity-enhancing technologies for the home.

This last factor is the only one that can explain the continued development of instant mashed potato technology. There were no potato-flaking interests during the war to have inertia; the instant mashed potatoes are not superior to their fresh antecedents; there was no ingrained consumer preference for an instant mashed potato product. It is only the desire to reduce time spent on food prep that could create “better instant mashed potatoes” as a commercially viable R&D space in the 1950s.

The other factors contributed to the unique awfulness of my father’s instant mashed potatoes, though.

Another WWII technological innovation, the cavity magnetron used in radar installations, led directly to the invention of the home microwave oven which began to proliferate widely in the 1970s. The microwave supercharged all “convenience food” trends, shortening not just prep time but cooking time as well. Uneven heating is hardly a concern when you can speed up your meals by a factor of ten.

Meanwhile, the existing postwar status of margarine and skim milk was greatly enhanced by the dietary fat scare of the 1980s and 1990s. These products displaced butter and whole milk as health-conscious consumers sought to eliminate saturated fats from their diets in a doomed effort to stave off the incipient obesity epidemic.

My parents, both already primed to accept these imitative products by my grandparents’ wartime preference formation, exclusively purchased margarine and skim milk for the household once they got married. And, pressed for time with two jobs and two kids, they frequently purchased instant mashed potatoes as well. And cooked them in the microwave.

What resulted was a second-order simulation of true maſhed potatoes, perverted and made unreal by the consumer echoes of the second world war. Real potatoes were substituted with desiccated flakes, real milk with a thin byproduct, real butter with refined vegetable oil, real mashing with the Philadelphia Cook, a real stovetop flame with microwave excitation. The measuring cup contained a substance gesturing at the notion of “mashed potatoes”, but no aspect of the original remained.

Yet because the name was the same, my father still believed he was eating the same dish my grandma made, the same dish his ancestors ate in Ireland, the same dish Glasse wrote about a quarter millennium ago. The appeal to him was undiminished. His body ate the slurry, but his mind still ate the maſhed potatoes of his youth.

My World is Built on Lies

In researching whether the ancient Andean peoples really did boil and mash potatoes, I came across this post which sheds light on the issues I have with my father’s instant mashed potatoes beyond their phenomenal unpleasantness when eaten.

There is a rhetorical sleight of hand happening in this Reddit post title.1 The phrasing implies that chuño resembles modern instant mashed potatoes in some way, that instant mashed potatoes are in some sense continuous with indigenous ways of potato-knowing. But there is no continuity of process, because the way chuño is created has no particular commonalities with the Philadelphia Cook beyond the removal of moisture. There is no continuity of form, for chuño actually looks like this:

(source)

And there is no continuity of purpose, either. To the Andean peoples, chuño was the only way of ensuring that their potato crops would be available well into the future. In America, our indigenous way of achieving this potato security is the entire miracle of modern agriculture and food distribution. I don’t need to stomp on freeze-dried potatoes in the Altiplano to make sure I’ll have access to potato nutrients next year. I just have to rely on the continued existence of Idaho and Target. No, despite what this redditor would like to believe, the instant mashed potato serves some other purpose.

That purpose is illuminated by the second rhetorical sleight of hand in the Reddit post, the one occurring on the box, in the form of the offset between the yellow lower-case “Instant” and the white majuscule “MASHED POTATOES”. “These are fundamentally maſhed potatoes,” this typography lies, “that happen to have been given the quality of ‘instant’”.

But they’re not. They’re a different thing entirely, a completely new evolutionary lineage of potato preparation that’s called “instant mashed potatoes” even though they’ve never been mashed. They are as distinct from Glasse’s maſhed potatoes as chuño is, but they masquerade as being the same, because that is their purpose - the fulfillment of a psychological need to consume something resembling the classic dish of “mashed potatoes” with slightly less effort than that dish requires.

This is a pedantic distinction - but it’s a distinction that had a big impact on my culinary life, because I believed the lie. My mental category of “mashed potatoes” was hijacked by this impostor and it made me think, for years and years, that I hated something that I actually would have liked all along. My preference formation was distorted by this warped, hyper-optimized fulfillment of my father’s crystallized preference. The expedient way to fulfill one generation’s desire locked the next generation out of experiencing that desire at all.

At this point in the review you might say, “what’s the big deal? It’s just mashed potatoes. Chill out.” Which, fair enough - if it were just mashed potatoes then 2500 words on them might be excessive. But the pattern I’ve described is far from unique to pureed tubers.

Consider an abstracted version of the saga of my father’s instant mashed potatoes. It has a few steps:

  1. Humanity develops a Thing from ingredients that exist in the world.

  2. Seeking efficiency at scale, an industry chops the ingredients of the Thing into teeny tiny bits.

  3. Using an artificial emulsifier, the bits are bound back together into an aesthetically deficient but more convenient slurry that resembles the Thing.

  4. Because it contains traces of the ingredients of the original Thing, this IMPish admixture is sold to us as if it were the original Thing.

Pared back to this level of abstraction, a surprising amount of stuff starts to seem like my father’s instant mashed potatoes.

The other foods in this category are obvious - McNuggets reconstituted out of pink slime, American cheese product, instant coffee, deli ham, Pringles minted from the very same potato flakes that go into IMPs. We’ve even developed a whole new health scare over them: “Ultra processed foods”2 are as demonized now as butter and whole milk were when my parents were young.

Expand the pattern to the built environment. Pressboard, particle board, and other reconstituted material composites likely make up a majority of new furniture sold in the US. These are an IMPish imitation of actual wood furniture. Take care while assembling not to ding your brittle sheetrock walls, an IMPish upgrade over lath and plaster. Often these interiors live inside an apartment building clad in a mish-mash of random ornament, anti-massing regulations demanding an IMPish simulation of a varied city block.

Intellectual goods can be IMPish. Reader’s Digest, sports “best-of” VHSes, textbooks stuffed with decontextualized excerpts, YouTube compilations, ChiveTV, listicles, social media feeds consisting of screenshots of other social media, Now That’s What I Call Music!, an entire ecosystem of actual cultural objects broken down into bits and clumped back together.

Corporate structures can be IMPish. When I visit a medical office it’s usually a confusing tangle of overlapping practitioners and practices operating out of the same physical address, an IMPish imitation of the archetypal doctor with a shingle in town. Similar quagmires abound when dealing with insurance, or contractors, or financial services.

Once you see the instant mashed potato antipattern it’s hard to stop. The isomorphisms are everywhere.

The gig economy makes IMPish jobs. Swiping apps produce IMPish flirting. Meta-studies are IMPish science. Ted Talks are IMPish symposia. Malls are IMPish shopping districts. Subdivisions are IMPish neighborhoods. Cruises are IMPish international travel, chopped into 14 hour chunks and emulsified with an ocean liner.

The internet scrapes together IMPish communities. We’re not atomized; we’re flaked. We’re Philadelphia Cooked, and we’re stewing here together in the microwave.

Large Language Models can gall on an aesthetic level because they are IMPish slurries of thought itself, every word ever written dried into weights and vectors and lubricated with the margarine of RLHF.3

Since World War II and the large-scale industrialization it fully unleashed, a core method driving ‘progress’ across many different fields of human endeavor has been to shred something real and reconstitute it into a faster, easier, less appealing IMPish substitute for what we used to make out of it. This is the parsimonious recipe for industry to fulfill our urges. We’ve got the food processor whirring, and absolutely everything is going in.

Why must the real be shredded to achieve these simulacra? Why can substitute products not be synthesized out of whole cloth? Because the integration of shreds of the real provides psychic camouflage, a credible way for the IMPish mimics to signal as their models:

The problem with this, of course, is the problem I had with my father’s instant mashed potatoes: the substitute is only able to satisfy a craving if you have the craving in the first place, and that requires direct experience with that which it is meant to replace. The memory of the thing being mimicked is a necessary ingredient for the IMPish imitation to work, the mental spell that allows the transmutation from IMPish Thing to Thing (original).

If you get to the party too late, if you never get to taste the maſhed potatoes, all you’re left with is a confusingly disappointing slurry going by the same name. When no distinction is drawn between the IMPish thing and its original, you don’t know what you’re missing. You don’t even know there’s anything to miss - after all, you’re still eating “mashed potatoes”!

If the IMPishness is pervasive enough, eventually you start to disbelieve that any of these reconstituted things could ever have been worthwhile, that any of the desires and preferences being fulfilled by these slurries ever could have been authentic. “Is this really what life is?”, you wonder, never having lived. “I don’t see why everyone was so jazzed about it.”

Cultivars of the Real

While formulating this review, I encountered a troubling congruence: the period during which my dad has been eating instant mashed potatoes consistently (roughly 1990-present) is about the same as the period between the onset of the Napoleonic Wars and the Irish potato famine in 1845. Why does one thirty-five-year pattern of potato consumption get to be considered authentic cultural heritage while another is self-deception? Aren’t they both equally contingent and ephemeral? Why should either be ‘real’?

This line of reasoning quickly starts to disclaim almost everything as fake. Masſed potatoes could only arise from the technologies of the age of the sail uniting old world tubers and new world dairy. They’ve only been around for a few centuries. Why should they get to be considered ‘real’? For that matter, why is the potato itself considered real? It’s a confection whipped up by the Andean farmers of the last few millennia. The only things that are really real on the Altiplano are nightshade and hunger.

I find such primitivism unhelpful in making the sort of distinction I aim to make here. Taken to the extreme it suggests that no hominid has experienced reality since the taming of fire. Some might agree that that’s the case! But as far as I’m concerned, at least some of the fruits of civilization are real too. I do think there is a way to conceive of the real that admits potatoes, that even admits masſed potatoes, but that gives legitimate reason to have grievance with IMPs.

On the Altiplano, the potato emerged through centuries of toil and discernment. Generation after generation of farmers chose only to propagate the solanum tubers that were bigger, tastier, less toxic, more nourishing. It is through such labor that every project of human civilization ultimately progresses - the ability, however imperfectly exercised, to act on the impulse “yes, more of this” when something is good, and “no, less of that” when it is bad.

As cultivators of the real, we get to choose not just among individual potatoes themselves, but among more abstract things like “memes concerning the preparation of potatoes”. Masſed potatoes were good, and so their meme propagated and strengthened the foodways it came in contact with. It was planted widely in the garden of the real. The WWII potato granule meme was bad, so it was discarded, cast out upon the rocks of the fake.

IMPish substitutes subvert this process of cultivation. In masquerading as other cultivars of meme, they weaken our stock both by sneaking into the garden despite their insalubrity, and by causing us, as I did for so long with maſhed potatoes, to reject the healthy older cultivars which they mimic.

Perhaps some of them are worth adding to our garden on their own merits. Perhaps many of them are! Many of the things I take for granted as ‘real’ are as far removed from their natural origins as a Yukon Gold is from those tiny nightshade roots, and in many cases I’m glad that we decided to keep them. But we must be clear-eyed about what each specimen is and what it is not in order to have any hope of making our decisions correctly.

Nowadays, I do not judge people for making use of instant mashed potatoes. I certainly take plenty of other prepared food culinary shortcuts myself. In the modern world we all make compromises for the sake of convenience. If we didn’t, we’d still be stomping on chuño to survive the winter.

But I do think it’s important to mind the distinction whenever you notice the IMPish pattern. There is a trick being played on you. You are not eating or watching or doing the Thing that your ancestors did, even if it contains the same ingredient and hides behind the same name. You’re planting something new in the garden of the real, and the nourishment it provides for your spirit, or the spirit of your children, may not be the same.

Fortunately, it is rare for even the most aggressive IMPish mimic to drive its model to extinction. It took over a decade, but I was eventually able to see past the deception of my father’s instant mashed potatoes and seek out the real version. Now I make maſhed potatoes regularly. My garden has one more good thing in it, and one less bad.

I even, on a recent visit to my grandmother’s house where I cooked St. Patrick’s Day dinner, got my dad to make real mashed potatoes himself, in a saucepan over a gas flame. It was the first time he’d ever done so. He enjoyed them.

***

In the interest of full fairness while writing this review, I purchased a plastic cup of my dad’s currently favored “Buttery Homestyle” Idahoan brand instant mashed potatoes for $1.99. The preparation was extraordinarily efficient; the aroma was decent; the taste was a reasonable facsimile; but the texture was all wrong - a smothering paste that coated my mouth and constrained my tongue like a straightjacket. 3/10 would not buy again.


Sources of potato facts (verified with primary sources linked within whenever possible):

https://tedium.co/2017/11/21/mashed-potato-history/

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/627023/mashed-potatoes-history

https://spudsmart.com/spud-history-instant-mashed-potatoes/

1

Ignoring the error that Ainu potato treatments like munini-imo are not ‘ancient’ at all, deriving from the long tail of the Columbian exchange in the 16th through 19th centuries like every other Old World potato dish. Comparisons between Instant Mashed Potatoes and munini-imo are precisely as inapt as with chuño, for the same reasons.

2

“Processed” is a slippery term that evokes all kinds of chemical perversions, but the physical transformation of chopping into tiny bits is fundamental to the notion. Consider what a “food processor” does.

3

Claude, by the way, estimates that 30-40% of all mashed potatoes eaten in the US are the instant kind. ChatGPT says 25-35%.



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francisga
165 days ago
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cherjr
151 days ago
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слишком много букв, но забавно
48.840867,2.324885

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Canon

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Click here to go see the bonus panel!

Hovertext:
I don't know if we need any kind of formal Canon of unread texts. I just think it'd be nice if we all failed to read the same cultural touchstones, you know?


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francisga
185 days ago
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jlvanderzwan
184 days ago
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Sayre's Law totally applies here, right??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayre%27s_law
Levitz
174 days ago
Oooh nice I didn't know that one
jlvanderzwan
174 days ago
That surprises me, because I learned about it when I was a member of the board of our student union. The reason why is left as an exercise for other former board members of our student union ;)

Billionaire math

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I have a friend who exited his startup a few years ago and is now rich. How rich is unclear. One day, we were discussing ways to expedite the delivery of his superyacht and I suggested paying extra. His response, as to so many of my suggestions, was, “Avery, I’m not that rich.”

Everyone has their limit.

I, too, am not that rich. I have shares in a startup that has not exited, and they seem to be gracefully ticking up in value as the years pass. But I have to come to work each day, and if I make a few wrong medium-quality choices (not even bad ones!), it could all be vaporized in an instant. Meanwhile, I can’t spend it. So what I have is my accumulated savings from a long career of writing software and modest tastes (I like hot dogs).

Those accumulated savings and modest tastes are enough to retire indefinitely. Is that bragging? It was true even before I started my startup. Back in 2018, I calculated my “personal runway” to see how long I could last if I started a company and we didn’t get funded, before I had to go back to work. My conclusion was I should move from New York City back to Montreal and then stop worrying about it forever.

Of course, being in that position means I’m lucky and special. But I’m not that lucky and special. My numbers aren’t that different from the average Canadian or (especially) American software developer nowadays. We all talk a lot about how the “top 1%” are screwing up society, but software developers nowadays fall mostly in the top 1-2%[1] of income earners in the US or Canada. It doesn’t feel like we’re that rich, because we’re surrounded by people who are about equally rich. And we occasionally bump into a few who are much more rich, who in turn surround themselves with people who are about equally rich, so they don’t feel that rich either.

But, we’re rich.

Based on my readership demographics, if you’re reading this, you’re probably a software developer. Do you feel rich?

It’s all your fault

So let’s trace this through. By the numbers, you’re probably a software developer. So you’re probably in the top 1-2% of wage earners in your country, and even better globally. So you’re one of those 1%ers ruining society.

I’m not the first person to notice this. When I read other posts about it, they usually stop at this point and say, ha ha. Okay, obviously that’s not what we meant. Most 1%ers are nice people who pay their taxes. Actually it’s the top 0.1% screwing up society!

No.

I’m not letting us off that easily. Okay, the 0.1%ers are probably worse (with apologies to my friend and his chronically delayed superyacht). But, there aren’t that many of them[2] which means they aren’t as powerful as they think. No one person has very much capacity to do bad things. They only have the capacity to pay other people to do bad things.

Some people have no choice but to take that money and do some bad things so they can feed their families or whatever. But that’s not you. That’s not us. We’re rich. If we do bad things, that’s entirely on us, no matter who’s paying our bills.

What does the top 1% spend their money on?

Mostly real estate, food, and junk. If they have kids, maybe they spend a few hundred $k on overpriced university education (which in sensible countries is free or cheap).

What they don’t spend their money on is making the world a better place. Because they are convinced they are not that rich and the world’s problems are caused by somebody else.

When I worked at a megacorp, I spoke to highly paid software engineers who were torn up about their declined promotion to L4 or L5 or L6, because they needed to earn more money, because without more money they wouldn’t be able to afford the mortgage payments on an overpriced $1M+ run-down Bay Area townhome which is a prerequisite to starting a family and thus living a meaningful life. This treadmill started the day after graduation.[3]

I tried to tell some of these L3 and L4 engineers that they were already in the top 5%, probably top 2% of wage earners, and their earning potential was only going up. They didn’t believe me until I showed them the arithmetic and the economic stats. And even then, facts didn’t help, because it didn’t make their fears about money go away. They needed more money before they could feel safe, and in the meantime, they had no disposable income. Sort of. Well, for the sort of definition of disposable income that rich people use.[4]

Anyway there are psychology studies about this phenomenon. “What people consider rich is about three times what they currently make.” No matter what they make. So, I’ll forgive you for falling into this trap. I’ll even forgive me for falling into this trap.

But it’s time to fall out of it.

The meaning of life

My rich friend is a fountain of wisdom. Part of this wisdom came from the shock effect of going from normal-software-developer rich to founder-successful-exit rich, all at once. He described his existential crisis: “Maybe you do find something you want to spend your money on. But, I'd bet you never will. It’s a rare problem. Money, which is the driver for everyone, is no longer a thing in my life.

Growing up, I really liked the saying, “Money is just a way of keeping score.” I think that metaphor goes deeper than most people give it credit for. Remember old Super Mario Brothers, which had a vestigial score counter? Do you know anybody who rated their Super Mario Brothers performance based on the score? I don’t. I’m sure those people exist. They probably have Twitch channels and are probably competitive to the point of being annoying. Most normal people get some other enjoyment out of Mario that is not from the score. Eventually, Nintendo stopped including a score system in Mario games altogether. Most people have never noticed. The games are still fun.

Back in the world of capitalism, we’re still keeping score, and we’re still weirdly competitive about it. We programmers, we 1%ers, are in the top percentile of capitalism high scores in the entire world - that’s the literal definition - but we keep fighting with each other to get closer to top place. Why?

Because we forgot there’s anything else. Because someone convinced us that the score even matters.

The saying isn’t, “Money is the way of keeping score.” Money is just one way of keeping score.

It’s mostly a pretty good way. Capitalism, for all its flaws, mostly aligns incentives so we’re motivated to work together and produce more stuff, and more valuable stuff, than otherwise. Then it automatically gives more power to people who empirically[5] seem to be good at organizing others to make money. Rinse and repeat. Number goes up.

But there are limits. And in the ever-accelerating feedback loop of modern capitalism, more people reach those limits faster than ever. They might realize, like my friend, that money is no longer a thing in their life. You might realize that. We might.

There’s nothing more dangerous than a powerful person with nothing to prove

Billionaires run into this existential crisis, that they obviously have to have something to live for, and money just isn’t it. Once you can buy anything you want, you quickly realize that what you want was not very expensive all along. And then what?

Some people, the less dangerous ones, retire to their superyacht (if it ever finally gets delivered, come on already). The dangerous ones pick ever loftier goals (colonize Mars) and then bet everything on it. Everything. Their time, their reputation, their relationships, their fortune, their companies, their morals, everything they’ve ever built. Because if there’s nothing on the line, there’s no reason to wake up in the morning. And they really need to want to wake up in the morning. Even if the reason to wake up is to deal with today’s unnecessary emergency. As long as, you know, the emergency requires them to do something.

Dear reader, statistically speaking, you are not a billionaire. But you have this problem.

So what then

Good question. We live at a moment in history when society is richer and more productive than it has ever been, with opportunities for even more of us to become even more rich and productive even more quickly than ever. And yet, we live in existential fear: the fear that nothing we do matters.[6][7]

I have bad news for you. This blog post is not going to solve that.

I have worse news. 98% of society gets to wake up each day and go to work because they have no choice, so at worst, for them this is a background philosophical question, like the trolley problem.

Not you.

For you this unsolved philosophy problem is urgent right now. There are people tied to the tracks. You’re driving the metaphorical trolley. Maybe nobody told you you’re driving the trolley. Maybe they lied to you and said someone else is driving. Maybe you have no idea there are people on the tracks. Maybe you do know, but you’ll get promoted to L6 if you pull the right lever. Maybe you’re blind. Maybe you’re asleep. Maybe there are no people on the tracks after all and you’re just destined to go around and around in circles, forever.

But whatever happens next: you chose it.

We chose it.

Footnotes

[1] Beware of estimates of the “average income of the top 1%.” That average includes all the richest people in the world. You only need to earn the very bottom of the 1% bucket in order to be in the top 1%.

[2] If the population of the US is 340 million, there are actually 340,000 people in the top 0.1%.

[3] I’m Canadian so I’m disconnected from this phenomenon, but if TV and movies are to be believed, in America the treadmill starts all the way back in high school where you stress over getting into an elite university so that you can land the megacorp job after graduation so that you can stress about getting promoted. If that’s so, I send my sympathies. That’s not how it was where I grew up.

[4] Rich people like us methodically put money into savings accounts, investments, life insurance, home equity, and so on, and only what’s left counts as “disposable income.” This is not the definition normal people use.

[5] Such an interesting double entendre.

[6] This is what AI doomerism is about. A few people have worked themselves into a terror that if AI becomes too smart, it will realize that humans are not actually that useful, and eliminate us in the name of efficiency. That’s not a story about AI. It’s a story about what we already worry is true.

[7] I’m in favour of Universal Basic Income (UBI), but it has a big problem: it reduces your need to wake up in the morning. If the alternative is bullshit jobs or suffering then yeah, UBI is obviously better. And the people who think that if you don’t work hard, you don’t deserve to live, are nuts. But it’s horribly dystopian to imagine a society where lots of people wake up and have nothing that motivates them. The utopian version is to wake up and be able to spend all your time doing what gives your life meaning. Alas, so far science has produced no evidence that anything gives your life meaning.

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francisga
194 days ago
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sarcozona
193 days ago
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I think part of this has to do with housing prices (in both countries) and medical expenses (in the US especially). If safe, comfortable housing in a place you don’t hate living is unaffordable, how are you rich? If you got cancer or a car paralyzed you tomorrow and the medical and caretaking expenses would bankrupt you years before you died, are you actually rich?

He talks about safety here like people are delusional, but they’re actually being reasonable. More reasonable would be to do Vienna style public housing everywhere and socialize medical care and actually take care of disabled people.
Epiphyte City

Trump's Plan to Impose 50% Tariffs on Brazil Highlights Illegal and Harmful Nature of his Trade Policy

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Brazilian flag. (NA)

 

Earlier today, President Donald Trump announced he intends to impose 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil, citing that country's prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, for the latter's attempt to stage a coup to keep himself in power after losing an election. Bolsonaro is a political ally of Trump's. The incident highlights the illegal and dangerous nature of Trump's tariff policy.

The administration has not made clear what law they will use to impose the Brazil tariffs. But reporters tell me officials have indicated Trump will use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), which is also the statute at issue in the lawsuit against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, filed by the Liberty Justice Center and myself, on behalf of five small businesses harmed by this massive trade war.

The Brazil situation exemplifies why Trump's use of IEEPA is illegal and harmful. Brazil's prosecution of Bolsonaro is pretty obviously not an "emergency" or an "unusual and extraordinary threat"  to the US economy or national security. Both of these conditions are required to invoke IEEPA.  This situation just underscores the danger of allowing the president to define those terms however he wants, without any judicial review, as the administration claims he can.

The ostensible rationale for the Liberation Day tariffs is trade deficits, despite the fact that such deficits are not an "emergency," not at all "extraordinary" or  "unusual," or even a threat at all. On these points, see the excellent amicus brief in our case filed by leading economists across the political spectrum.

The Brazil tariffs are even more indefensible than Trump's other IEEPA tariffs. In addition to the Bolsonaro prosecution, Trump's letter announcing the new tariffs cites that country's supposedly unfair trade policies.  But the US actually has a substantial trade surplus with Brazil, of some $7.4 billion per year, according to the office of the US Trade Representative. In combination with  Brazil's retaliatory tariffs, Trump's massive new tariffs against that country will predictably harm consumers and businesses in both countries, for little if any gain.

If the president can use IEEPA to impose tariffs for completely ridiculous reasons like these, he can use it to impose them against any nation for any reason. That reinforces our argument that the administration's interpretation of IEEPA leads to a boundless and unconstitutional delegation of legislative power to the executive. A unanimous ruling in our favor by the US Court of International Trade concluded that IEEPA "does not authorize the President to impose unbounded tariffs" and that such "an unlimited delegation of tariff authority would constitute an improper abdication of legislative power to another branch of government." I hope appellate courts will reach the same conclusions.

The president's attempt to use tariff policy to punish Brazil for prosecuting one of his political allies underscores the threat that unlimited executive tariff authority poses to the rule of law. Tariff policy - like other significant economic policies - should be based on clear, stable rules that do not vary based on the whims of any one person, and cannot be used to punish the president's political enemies or reward his allies. Trump's tariff power grab is a huge step towards replacing the rule of law in trade policy with the unilateral rule of one man. That's yet another reason why courts should strike it down.

The post Trump's Plan to Impose 50% Tariffs on Brazil Highlights Illegal and Harmful Nature of his Trade Policy appeared first on Reason.com.

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Your Review: School

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[This is one of the finalists in the 2025 review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. It was originally given an Honorable Mention, but since last week’s piece was about an exciting new experimental school, I decided to promote this more conservative review as a counterpoint.]

“Democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” - Winston Churchill

“There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.” - G.K. Chesterton

What Do Schools Do?

Imagine for a moment that you visit 100 random classrooms in 100 random schools across the country. You’ll be impressed by some teachers; you won’t think much of others. You will see a handful of substitute teachers struggling to manage their classrooms. You’ll see some schools where the energy is positive and students seem excited to learn, and others where it feels like pulling teeth. Two commonalities you might notice are that first, in the vast majority of classrooms, the students are grouped by age and taught the same content. And second, you might notice that the learning isn’t particularly efficient. Many students already know what is being taught. Others are struggling and would benefit from a much slower pace. You will see plenty of sitting around waiting for the next thing to happen, or activities that seem designed to take up time and not to maximize learning.

What do schools do? Your first thought might be that schools exist to maximize learning. Observing 100 random classrooms may disabuse you of that notion. It sure doesn’t seem like school is doing a good job of maximizing learning. So what are schools doing?

Context

This essay is a review of school as an institution. It is an attempt to write something that is true and insightful about how school is designed and why the structure of school has proven so durable. In particular, I’m trying to describe why those two commonalities – age-graded classrooms and inefficient learning – are so widespread. I’m not trying to provide solutions. Everyone seems to have a pet idea for how schools could be better. I do think that most people who think they have the prescription for schools’ problems don’t understand those problems as well as they should. For context, I am a teacher. I have taught in public, private, and charter schools for 13 years. I have also had the chance to visit and observe at a few dozen schools of all types. I’m writing based on my experience teaching and observing, and also drawing on some education history and research. My experience and knowledge are mostly limited to the United States, so that’s what I’ll focus on and where I think my argument generalizes. I’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to think about how these ideas apply to other countries.

Thesis

Here’s the thesis, the point of this essay. School isn’t designed to maximize learning. School is designed to maximize motivation.

This might seem like a silly thing to say. During those 100 classroom visits you might have seen a lot of classrooms with a lot of students who don’t look very motivated. The core design of our schools – age-graded classrooms where all students are expected to learn more or less the same curriculum – are the worst form of motivation we could invent…except for all the others. While school is not particularly effective at motivating students, every other approach we’ve tried manages to be worse. School is a giant bundle of compromises, and many things that you might intuitively think would work better simply don’t.

The important thing to remember is that, when I talk about school, I’m talking about tens of millions of students and a few million teachers in the US. You might say to yourself, “I wasn’t very motivated in school.” Sure, I believe you. The goal isn’t to motivate you, it’s to motivate as many students as possible, and to do it at scale. If you have a boutique solution that works for your kid in your living room, that’s nice, but that isn’t likely to scale to the size at which we ask our education system to operate.

Motivation for What?

So school is designed to motivate kids. But motivate them to do what? Do kids learn anything in school?

There are plenty of depressing statistics out there about what people don’t learn in school, but they do learn things. You can look at longitudinal studies where on average students make academic progress. For a broader sample size, the NWEA assessment is given at thousands of schools across the country each year. You can see from the average scores they publish that the average student does improve at math and reading – especially through the end of middle school. We also had a natural experiment a few years ago. The pandemic closed schools across the country, shifting to online or part-time learning for anywhere from three months to a year and a half. The result is now well-known as “learning loss.” The nationally-sampled NAEP assessment is the most objective measure, though learning loss shows up across various assessments. There’s some variability between states, subjects, and ages. For one example, 8th grade math scores declined by about 0.2 standard deviations. This is a relatively small but significant decline. It’s a good example of the broader principle: students learn less in school than we would like, but students do learn things.

It’s useful to pick a few specific examples. Do you know the meaning of the word “relevant?” Do you know what photosynthesis is? Where do you think you learned those facts? I’m sure some readers learned them by being avid readers and curious humans, outside of the school curriculum. But many kids learn stuff like that in school. If you’re skeptical, stop by a middle school classroom when they’re learning photosynthesis, or when they’re working on identifying relevant evidence in their writing. You’ll see plenty of kids who already know both, but plenty more who know neither. A lot of learning is this kind of gradual, incidental knowledge that we often take for granted.

So students can read and do arithmetic and maybe they learn about photosynthesis, but isn’t that all learned in elementary school? A number of studies suggest that additional years of education lead to IQ gains of 1-5 IQ points per year of schooling. These studies often use a change in compulsory education laws or age discontinuities as quasi-experiments. In particular, changes in compulsory education laws are typically at upper middle school or high school levels. Those are the places where we might be most skeptical of the value of education. Sure, schools teach kids how to read, but once students know how to read do schools really add any value? Kids don’t remember how to factor quadratics, yet they gain IQ points from the time they spent in school not learning how to factor quadratics, at least on average.

That gain in IQ points is worth lingering on. This might seem hard to believe for people who are skeptical of the value of school. And to be clear, the fact that school raises IQ doesn’t mean that school is designed optimally. Maybe there’s a better way to design school that would raise IQ even more? But I think that, if we all imagine a world where we give up on education and the average person had a significantly lower IQ, is that a world you want to live in? We don’t have good experiments on IQ, but higher IQs are correlated with all sorts of things that we might want – lower probability of committing crime, higher career earnings, and better physical and mental health. It’s tough to pin down exactly what students learn in school that sticks, particularly for the higher grades. During those visits to 100 classrooms you would’ve seen a lot of classrooms where not much learning was happening. Yet despite all those bad optics, school still raises IQ. Before we tear down the fence, we should think carefully about the purpose this particular fence serves.

I don’t want to overstate the case here. We should be skeptical of school learning. Kids don’t learn as much as we might hope. They forget all sorts of stuff you would think they’d remember if school was operating well. But at a basic level, most students learn to read and do arithmetic, some learn much more than that, and on average school seems to add to IQ. Revisiting Chesterton’s fence, those are the benefits of school we need to understand before we tear anything apart.

There Must Be a Better Way

Educational thought leaders have long argued that we can do better than our current system. A common theme has been personalizing learning: allowing students to go at their own pace, rather than forcing all students to learn at the same speed.

The push for individualized instruction dates back to the early 20th century. Sydney Pressey, a psychologist at Ohio State University, built the first "teaching machine" in 1924. His device, a mechanical testing apparatus resembling a typewriter, allowed students to answer multiple-choice questions and receive immediate feedback. Pressey envisioned a future where machines would free teachers from rote instruction, letting students progress at their own pace. Yet his invention was dismissed as a gimmick. Schools saw no need to automate what teachers could do manually.

In the 1950s, B.F. Skinner revived the idea with his own teaching machine, designed around operant conditioning principles. Skinner argued that traditional classrooms were ineffective because they delayed feedback and forced all students to move in lockstep. His machine broke lessons into tiny steps, rewarding correct answers instantly. Like Pressey, Skinner believed technology could revolutionize education. But his machine was never widely adopted and mostly forgotten.

By the 1960s and 70s, as computers entered universities and corporations, techno-optimists predicted they would soon transform schools. Patrick Suppes, a Stanford professor, developed one of the first computer-assisted instruction (CAI) systems, which taught math via mainframe terminals. Early studies showed promise, but the systems were expensive and impractical for most schools.

In recent years, some of the boldest claims have come from Khan Academy. Founded in 2006, Khan Academy began as a set of lecture videos created by Sal Khan and has grown to include practice exercises with feedback, full curricula, and an AI chatbot tutor. Unlike earlier personalized learning tools, Khan Academy has seen broader adoption in real classrooms. It is a common element in personalized learning programs, which have been popular with tech billionaires who like to donate to education causes.

Bill Gates has funded efforts like the Gates Foundation’s "Next Generation Learning Challenges," promoting software-driven schools where algorithms tailor lessons to each student. Mark Zuckerberg donated $100 million to Newark Public Schools in 2010, largely earmarked for "personalized learning" tech. Zuckerberg echoed a common critique of traditional education, saying that it’s absurd to teach all students "the same material at the same pace in the same way.” These arguments resonate with many parents and reformers. It seems obvious: if some children grasp fractions in a week while others need a month, why not let them move at their own pace?

With all that enthusiasm, what were the results of the push for personalization?

Personalized Learning Has Failed

Intuitively, it’s reasonable that an education at your level and meets you where you are will result in more learning than just following the prescribed course of study for 6th grade or whatever. All else equal, it’s certainly true that instruction at your level will result in more learning. The thing is, we can’t hold all else equal. Schooling is a massive enterprise, and we can’t give every student instruction at their level without rethinking that enterprise. In general, when schools have tried, they have failed.

Last year, Laurence Holt published an excellent article summarizing the core challenge of today’s education technology. There is no shortage of fancy online programs that claim to teach kids math. Khan Academy was the first to gain widespread popularity, but it’s actually used much less now than some newer entrants like IXL and i-Ready. Every one of these programs commissions some study showing that students who use their program with fidelity learn more than some control group. Holt digs into the data, and it turns out that the group who used the programs with fidelity was often around 5%. The article is called “The 5 Percent Problem.” These programs do seem to help a subset of students, but don’t do much for the rest. While Holt’s article focuses on math education, education technology has had a similarly lackluster impact on achievement in English classes. We know that reading on screens leads to less learning than reading on paper, and the personalized learning apps have a similarly disappointing track record as in math.

This phenomenon isn’t limited to schoolchildren. Remember the MOOC craze of the early 2010s? Universities started releasing free or low-cost versions of their coursework online. Briefly it was all the rage: MOOCs were supposed to democratize knowledge and disrupt higher education. Instead, completion rates were low, and the MOOC mostly died an unceremonious death. Numbers vary depending on the source but 10% completion is a generous median, the same order of magnitude as the 5% problem in K-12 education technology. The vast majority of people who sign up for a course never finish. Many MOOCs are still online and get plenty of views on Youtube, but we’ve learned that most people need more than course content posted online in order to learn. The big difference between MOOCs and school is that if you don’t finish that MOOC on the US constitution, life goes on. If a kid doesn’t learn to read, they’ll be at a disadvantage for the rest of their lives.

The core problem with these online programs is having every student work independently, without any connection to what the students around them are learning. That just doesn’t motivate many students. Couldn’t we try putting students into groups, so not all students in a class are learning at the same pace, but students also have a cohort they are learning with? Schools often try to meet students where they are through leveled reading groups. Imagine an elementary school classroom. Instead of asking all students to read the same book, the teacher groups students into 3-5 separate groups based on their reading skills. The stronger readers get more challenging books, and the struggling readers get a book on their level. There is a huge business in putting out sets of leveled books and assessments to determine each student’s reading level. And the result? In general, research has found that leveled reading reduces the achievement of the readers who struggle the most. We might intuitively think that reading an easier book would benefit students who have weaker reading skills, but that intuition seems to be wrong.

Ok but all of those try to take a class of students and meet students where they are. What about assigning students to classes based on their achievement? In the US this is typically called tracking or ability grouping. It’s a complex and controversial topic. The research base is hard to read because there are a lot of ideologically motivated researchers who are either for or against tracking and want to see the evidence a certain way. But the biggest theme in the research is that the effects are small. There are plenty of meta-analyses that find an effect near zero (here’s one example). You can slice and dice these results lots of ways. Schooling is complex and there are lots of different ways to implement tracking. Maybe there are some gains to be found. But the theme so far is that tracking isn’t coming to save us.

Psychological research consistently shows that humans are conformist creatures. We instinctively align our behaviors to group norms. Classic studies like Asch’s line experiments, where 75% of participants denied obvious truths to match group answers, remind us that humans are social and prioritize conformity. This tendency isn’t just peer pressure, it’s evolutionary wiring. For our ancestors, conforming boosted survival by maintaining group harmony and reducing conflict. Today, this manifests in classrooms where low-structure learners thrive on collective routines. Conformity explains why personalized learning often fails. Most students need the social scaffolding of lockstep instruction, even when it’s inefficient. Conformity isn’t a perfect solution, but it’s the best one we have.

One form of learning that has been shown to be particularly effective is deliberate practice. Deliberate practice involves being pushed outside of your comfort zone, focusing on specific, concrete goals to improve performance, and getting consistent feedback. One common characteristic of deliberate practice is that it isn’t particularly fun. Most contexts where deliberate practice is common, like sports and music training, involve expert, individualized coaching. The coach is mostly there for motivation. The coach does other things as well, but the most important thing a coach can do is motivate you to train. Deliberate practice isn’t common in school learning, but it’s a good reminder that motivation is the key to lots of forms of learning in and out of school. Learning isn’t always going to be a ton of fun. In the absence of one-on-one tutoring for every student, conformity is the best tool we have to create the motivation necessary for learning.

These two failures—self-paced technology and ability grouping—get at a deeper truth. Working at your own pace may seem like it makes sense, but it often undermines motivation. Grouping students by ability, whether within or across classrooms, has shown little benefit. Neither approach has delivered the transformation its advocates promised.

But Personalization Works for Some Kids?

Let’s explore personalization a bit more. Clearly this personalized learning thing works for some students. Maybe 5%. Maybe 10%. Why?

Here’s a broad generalization about learning. Let’s take the basics of learning to read as an example, where there is a wealth of data to back up the generalization. Some students will learn to read no matter what they experience in school. Often their parents teach them, or an older sibling or neighbor, and they pick it up quickly. Others more or less teach themselves. This group doesn’t benefit much from organized school, at least in terms of learning to read. We might call these “no-structure learners.” A second group needs the structure of school, but the quality of the teaching doesn’t matter too much. As long as they get the basics, a solid exposure to reading, and some support from a teacher, they will learn to read just fine. We might call these “low-structure learners.” Then there’s a third group. This group will struggle to learn to read. For this group, the quality of teaching matters enormously. Some will be diagnosed with dyslexia, though a strong course of synthetic phonics will reduce that number. Many will learn the basics but still struggle with things like multi-syllable words for years to come if they aren’t taught well. A carefully-sequenced, well-taught curriculum can make a large difference for these students. We might call these “high-structure learners.” There aren’t sharp divisions between these three groups, and motivation depends on context, so students may have a different motivation profile for a different subject or something outside of school. This is the answer to why personalization only works for 5% of students. Students need different levels of structure in order to succeed.

For another example, we see the same phenomenon with math facts like times tables. Some students seem to learn them by osmosis, or they pick them up entirely outside of school. Many more need a bit of structured practice, but learn their facts without much trouble and move on. Some struggle with multiplication facts for years. The structure provided isn’t enough, the curriculum moves on, and these students often struggle in math for years to come. For one example of a high-structure teaching strategy, incremental rehearsal is a highly-structured way to teach students multiplication facts.

This phenomenon is well-studied with phonics and math facts, but you could apply it to any other domain. Imagine a college computer science department. The no-structure learner is that student who is always coding on their own, learning stuff from Stack Overflow, and only occasionally going to class to make sure they get their degree. The low-structure learner shows up to class. They aren’t learning too much on their own, and coursework is motivation enough to learn and get a solid foundation in computer science. The high-structure learner has a hard time. They’re the student showing up to office hours all the time, using the tutoring center, using all the support they can find. Maybe they push through, maybe they can’t cut it and switch to a major in communications.

The same phenomenon shows up in pandemic learning loss. Learning loss was concentrated mostly in the lowest-achieving students. Many high-achieving students did fine; these are students who didn’t need the structure of school, or for whom the minimal structure of online coursework was enough to keep them moving forward. The high-structure students who already struggle in school lost the most ground.

Low- and no-structure learners help us understand a broader phenomenon: for many students, school quality doesn’t seem to matter very much. One illustration is that in randomized controlled trials, school assignment doesn’t seem to play a very large role in academic achievement. Freddie deBoer collected this research in his essay Education Doesn’t Work. I’ll quote him here:

Winning a lottery to attend a supposedly better school in Chicago makes no difference for educational outcomes. In New York? Makes no difference. What determines college completion rates, high school quality? No, that makes no difference; what matters is “pre-entry ability.” How about private vs. public schools? Corrected for underlying demographic differences, it makes no difference. (Private school voucher programs have tended to yield disastrous research results.) Parents in many cities are obsessive about getting their kids into competitive exam high schools, but when you adjust for differences in ability, attending them makes no difference.

We could pick apart these studies and I’m sure we could find examples where there is a difference, but that difference will be small.

Here are two quick anecdotes from my personal experience. I often have bright students whose parents request they get some more advanced work. I try to lay out for them a few options for more challenging work I can provide students, but I’m also clear that I am one human and I can’t teach the student for significant chunks of time each day. I can provide some resources, I can check in with them and answer their questions, but the student needs to be motivated to engage with some challenges. In the vast majority of cases, the student never touches the challenge work. Their parents bug them about it, I bug them about it, but they just can’t summon the motivation. These students are willing to keep up with our regular coursework, chugging along with content they mostly already know or can learn in a fraction of the time that it takes many of their peers. But working on their own is beyond them. To be clear, this isn’t every student. But it’s a large majority, another illustration of the 5 percent problem.

Second, online charter schools have spread rapidly in the last ten years. In my state it’s not very hard for students to enroll. I’ve had a number of students unenroll from our local public school and start at an online charter school. Most are back within a few months. They generally say one or both of two things: first, that they are bored learning on their own and they miss having people around. And second, they just weren’t motivated and didn’t learn much. Now to be clear, I’m in favor of having some online charter schools. They are a great option for some students – students who can summon the motivation, students with outside-of-school circumstances that make attending school challenging. It’s the 5 percent problem. There’s a 5 percent, those no-structure learners or students in other unique situations, who benefit from options like online charter schools. But the vast majority do best in the age-graded schools we already have.

You might think that we’ve found the solution to tracking. We just need to get all the no- and low-structure learners together and let them move much faster. Here’s the issue. The no-structure learners will always be bored, as long as we are committed to putting them into classrooms where everyone learns the same thing. And those classrooms where everyone learns the same thing are exactly what the low-structure learners need. As soon as you create a higher track there will be a ton of demand for it. Parents will insist that their kid join. And as it grows, it won’t be able to accelerate very quickly. You still need the structure of a classroom where everyone is learning the same thing, and that just isn’t a very efficient way to teach.

A good illustration of this point is to visit a gifted or exam school. If a few of those 100 classrooms from our observation thought experiment were gifted schools or schools with an entrance exam, you might be surprised by what you see. They would be doing more advanced work than peers in regular schools, absolutely. But often only by a year or two. You’d see all the same inefficiencies of students all learning the same thing at the same pace. You’d see lots of bored students who could be going faster. You’d see a bunch of students who you’re surprised are in this school at all. It’s the reality of the system we have.

No-structure learners thrive anywhere. Low-structure learners need any coherent system. High-structure learners are much more sensitive to the quality of teaching, but trying to meet each student where they are doesn’t work very well. Lumping everyone together and asking them all to learn the same curriculum seems to work better at scale than anything else we’ve tried. These are the core challenges of education.

What’s Happening Under the Hood?

If we know there are no-, low-, and high-structure learners, then the key question becomes: what internal levers predict who ends up where?

I see three main factors. First is intrinsic motivation. This isn’t a review of self-determination theory, but the short version is that some students have a lot of intrinsic motivation, others have less, and some have little at all. Second is the set of habits students bring to school. When you observe students in school, one thing that’s often striking is how some students are in the habit of completing assignments, reading when they’re asked to read, solving math problems on a worksheet when asked, and so on. Others don’t have those habits. You’ve got no-structure learners, who would happily do that learning on their own. Low-structure learners, for whom the basic structure of school and class is enough to keep positive habits going. And then high-structure learners, who are in the habit of avoiding schoolwork whenever they can. Finally, there’s fluid intelligence. Students with a high processing speed and high working memory capacity are better at learning without much structure. They have the mental tools to connect the dots and figure things out with less structure. Students without those cognitive capacities need additional structure in order to learn.

Those elements are self-reinforcing. Motivation tends to beget motivation. Habits become stronger over time. Students with less fluid intelligence learn less in school, which exacerbates the consequences of less fluid intelligence. This doesn’t mean that a kid can’t change their trajectory. It’s possible to change habits, and to develop new sources of motivation. A broad base of knowledge helps to mitigate a lack of fluid intelligence. Motivation and habits are context-specific, so students might have a different profile in a different subject. But on average, students tend to stay about where they are in the no-structure, low-structure, and high-structure spectrum.

Students don’t always neatly fall into one category or another. They can shift over time, or be very intrinsically motivated yet have other challenges that require a lot of structure. Students can have different profiles in different subjects. Still, this broad taxonomy is a useful way to understand why tactics like personalization work for some students and not others, and why the basic structure of school has lasted so long.

The Thesis, Again

One way to interpret the design of school is that it’s trying to provide just enough structure to get students to learn the basics of the school curriculum. Putting kids in front of a computer on their own isn’t going to do the trick.

Schools are given a huge challenge. The goal isn’t to educate the students who are easiest to teach, or most eager to learn. The goal is to educate everyone. The core challenge of compulsory public education is motivation. The best solution we’ve found is to send kids to school beginning at age 5 (or earlier if we can), before they can reliably form long-term episodic memories. Talk to a typical high school student, and they have literally been going to school as long as they can remember. We group students by age in part because it’s the easiest way to organize the system. The system motivates high-structure learners to keep up with their peers, though that motivation does gradually fade over time. Grouping by age also provides just enough structure for low-structure learners to stay on track – not that it’s particularly efficient, but it can help schools be reasonably confident that those low-structure learners will get a broad foundation in the school curriculum. In the same way that democracy is the worst form of government ever invented except for all the others, conventional school is the worst form of motivating students to learn except for all the others. All that leads to the obvious, inevitable problems. Some students are ready to move faster, some students need more support. Schools and teachers often try to help, and occasionally experiment in bold ways, but there’s this enormous gravity that pulls back toward the conventions of a typical school. It’s easy to point out these obvious challenges and claim that school is broken, that we should blow up the system and invent something better. It’s much harder to ask why the fence is there, and understand it before taking it down.

Here’s something you have to remember. It’s easy to cherry-pick in education. If you want to start a school to prove that penguin-based learning is the future, that penguin meditation and penguin-themed classrooms are superior to the stuffy, traditional, obsolete schools we have now, you can. It’s simple. Find a way to only accept no-structure and very low-structure learners. Then start your school. Do your penguin meditation, make sure there’s a basic structure for learning core academic skills, and you’re set. The results will be great, you can publish articles about the success of your method, if you’re lucky you’ll get some of that sweet sweet philanthropy money.

Cherry-picking isn’t always that blatant. If you just manage to get a few more low-structure learners and fewer high-structure learners in your school it will make a difference. Your test scores will look better than the school down the street. Schools spend a huge fraction of their resources on special education, providing the structure and systems that those students need. Just having fewer students who need that level of resources will free up time and energy to focus on everyone else, and the selection effects will make it look like you’re doing a good job. The difference doesn’t have to be huge to help the school do a little better.

What if we were brutally honest when a family enrolls their child in school? Here’s what we would say:

If your child is a no-structure learner, they will be bored here. They will probably learn some things, but they will often sit in lessons where they know everything the teacher is teaching, and they’ll spend a lot of their time sitting around waiting for other students to catch up. If your child is a low-structure learner, they will still often be bored as our school isn’t very efficient, but the structure and routine will ensure they get a basic level of literacy and numeracy. Maybe they’ll like school, probably because of gym class and being around their friends, maybe they won’t, but they’ll learn some things. That said, the school you pick doesn’t matter too much. Your child will learn about as much anywhere else. If your child is a high-structure learner, they will need a lot of very structured teaching. Our teachers vary widely: some are good at providing that structure, others aren’t. Your child will gradually fall behind, and will perpetually feel a bit dumb and a bit slow compared to everyone else. But we will do our best to keep them moving along with their peers because that’s the best idea we have to motivate them. Hopefully, with some help, they’ll graduate high school on time. There’s a risk they just won’t have the skills, or they’ll be discouraged by constantly feeling dumb and just give up. Oh, and we aren’t very good at understanding what causes students to be motivated. It’s absolutely correlated with socioeconomic status, so it would be helpful if you’re rich, but there’s a lot of variability and plenty of rich kids need that structure too.

Some History

It’s worth taking a quick detour through the history of education in the US. When did age-graded schools become common? The story is a bit different than many common conceptions of how education has worked in the US. White people in the US, particularly men, had a relatively high literacy rate by 1800, higher than most other countries at the time except perhaps Scotland. But the education system was fragmented. It was a mix of religious education, local cooperatives, apprenticeships, formal schooling for the rich, and public education for the poor in cities. The common school movement emerged between 1830 and 1860. The goal of the movement wasn’t to increase the average education of the populace, and it didn’t cause any large increase in the literacy rate. Instead, the primary rationale was the importance of a common education system for democracy. Democracy felt fragile in the first half of the 19th century, and universal public education was the solution.1

The explicit goals of the common schools movement were to instill in students the importance of citizenship and morality. Age-graded schools were a natural next step: students should travel through school in a cohort of their peers, learning together the basics of reading, writing, and arithmetic, and the importance of education for the country’s young democracy. While these schools certainly did teach reading, writing, and arithmetic, the curriculum of the school played a secondary role to its common character. The most important goal of school reformers was to move education into common schools; whether learning happened in those schools was a secondary goal. It’s interesting that maximizing learning was never the goal of universal education.

The common school movement focused on what we would now call elementary and middle schools. It wasn’t until the 20th century that attendance in high school became widespread and then compulsory. And high school is the place where this giant compromise starts to fall apart. Even when the high school became widespread, there was broad disagreement about what high school should teach. Should high schools retain the liberal arts focus that they had when only the rich had access? Should they focus on the trades and career education? Should high schools offer a core course of study to all students, or use tracking to separate students who are college-bound from those who are not? These are the perennial questions that high schools wrestle with, and they are a logical outgrowth of the core tension of using age-graded schools. The goal still wasn’t about learning; it was about what the credentials were and who had access to those credentials. Only in the last few decades have schools tried to focus on maximizing learning. According to NAEP data there was some increase in scores between the late 80s or 90s depending on the subject and about 2012, after which there was stagnation or a slow decline, accelerated by the pandemic learning loss. This is a conjecture without any real evidence, but the increase in education technology and personalized learning software coincides with that stagnation in national test scores. The rise in test scores didn’t involve any large changes in the basic structure of school, it was driven by a lot of legislation and rhetoric around “no child left behind” and trying to support students who previously fell through the cracks.

School is Conservative

One common frustration for those who believe that schools can do better is how conservative the education system is. While there are pockets of innovation and experimentation, most schools are bureaucratic and slow to change. This is often viewed as a failure: why are our schools so obsolete and slow to adapt to the needs of the 21st century?

What if the education system is conservative for good reasons? We have always looked to education as the solution to our social problems. In the 19th century, education existed to buttress our democracy. In the first half of the 20th century, education was asked to promote social mobility. In the second half of the 20th century, education was asked to contribute to our national defense.

Maybe the best way education can contribute to all of these causes is to focus on providing a broad, basic education to as many children as possible, and maybe our current system is the best idea we’ve had so far for doing so. If education chased every fad that came along, it might be in much worse shape. It was only a few years ago that a lot of people were arguing that we should teach more kids to code. Now it looks like coding might be one of the first jobs AI can do for us. For the last few decades, many thought leaders have advocated that we reorient our education system away from antiquated content that kids can look up on Google, and instead teach critical thinking. There’s ample evidence that we can’t actually teach critical thinking divorced from content. And education seems to increase IQ, so maybe we’re already teaching critical thinking by giving students a broad, basic education.

The reality is that elementary and middle schools haven’t changed much over time. High schools, however, are the place where the drive to motivate students breaks down. At that point, low-structure and high-structure students are pretty far apart from one another. High schools handle this in a variety of ways. Some high schools specialize, either as test-in schools or schools with a particular theme. Private high schools play a role supporting high-achieving students. And at comprehensive public high schools, there is more tracking and separate experiences for students. An increasing number of high schools offer community college courses through dual enrollment, as well as a wide variety of electives. Other students move into a vocational track, with some remediation in core literacy and numeracy skills and coursework designed for careers rather than college.

This is logical if we look at school as a system designed to maximize motivation: by the time students reach high school, the gaps in academic knowledge have widened to a point where it isn’t practical to keep students in the same classroom. Most elementary and middle schools promote students socially, at least if they put some effort in. But in high school, students need to amass credits and/or pass exams to graduate, and keeping everyone in the same classroom learning the same content won’t get some students the credits they need. We see what you would expect: motivation plummets. Remember those 100 classrooms you imagined visiting? Some of them would be lower-level high school classes. Those are often sad classrooms to spend time in. Students aren’t doing very much, expectations are clearly low, there isn’t much learning happening. Schools often explicitly create easier avenues to graduate for some students, through credit recovery programs or similar ways to give credit to students who aren’t putting in much effort. It’s logical that motivation plummets: students are no longer motivated by staying with their grade-level peers.

Practicalities

What good is the hypothesis that school is designed to maximize motivation? It can help us understand all sorts of phenomena. I often hear an argument from homeschoolers that they can accomplish in two hours a day (or some other small amount of time) what schools do in seven or eight. I don’t doubt that at all. Schools aren’t particularly efficient at facilitating learning. Schools are good at educating everyone at once.

We can also better understand learning loss from the pandemic. Learning in school isn’t particularly efficient, so one might assume that missing a few months of school won’t have a big impact. But habits are powerful. What changed was motivation. During the pandemic, many students lost their long-held habits of attending and putting in effort at school. Interestingly, learning loss happened both in states that had extended school closure and those that returned to full-time school more quickly. In both cases, students lost those habits, and the power of conformity started working against school motivation, rather than in favor of it.

We can understand why school sports are such a powerful and enduring phenomenon: motivation is the core challenge of school, and conformity is our best solution. Team sports are a great mechanism to motivate young people, so we attach sports to school to capture a bit of that motivation.

We can understand why, despite lots of hype, AI hasn’t revolutionized education. Most AI applications pay little attention to motivation, and try to personalize learning in exactly the ways personalized learning has failed. AI may yet transform education, in any number of ways. But in the short term, AI has been naive about motivation in exactly the same way as all the other education transformations that have fallen short.

We can understand why there have been so many attempts to revolutionize schools, but they have struggled whenever they try to scale. If you have the right group of students, lots of things might seem to work. When you try to scale them to meet the true needs of universal education, they will run into the same roadblocks education has always struggled with. Then, the education system will be blamed for being obsolete, and we will continue to invent new approaches to education that ignore the same basic challenges of motivation.

Something I haven’t addressed is the harsh reality of school for many kids. Everyone’s experience is different, but there are countless stories of students getting bullied, verbally abused by teachers, deprived of bodily autonomy and freedom of movement. This can all be true. I don’t want to hide from these realities; I’m a teacher, I’ve seen them. Walk into a typical middle school and you will quickly learn the byzantine collection of rules about going to the bathroom. It’s not something I’m proud of, and I’m not arguing that it’s a good thing. But policing the bathrooms, and many related minutiae of students’ lives, is a byproduct of the reality of school. We require all students to attend compulsory education of some kind. Some schools are able to filter out more of the high-structure learners. In those schools you won’t find nearly as many rules about using the bathroom, and you will also find far less bathroom vandalism. In the schools that are left to educate everyone else, we are left with the reality of trying to motivate students as best we can. We struggle with the students who predictably lash out because they are bored with moving too slow, or constantly confused as the curriculum moves too fast. We double down on conformity and structure, not because they are perfect solutions but because they’re coping strategies to deal with some of the ugly realities of mass compulsory education.

This isn’t to say schools respond appropriately in every situation. There are tens of thousands of schools, each left to their own devices to figure out the best way to educate their charges. Humans make mistakes, and when we scale a profession to the size of our public education system we have to do the best with the teachers and school leaders we have. I’ve been party to plenty of school policies I disagree with. I’m not trying to defend them, just to help readers understand where they come from.

A Prediction

I’ve used the word “designed” loosely in this essay. Age-graded classrooms are schools’ most valuable asset, but they weren’t deliberately designed. They came about by an accident of history, and they have stuck around because we haven’t figured out anything better. That lack of self-awareness will always be education’s Achilles heel.

Where will we go from here? I hope I’ve been clear that I don’t think schools are perfect. They are designed to maximize motivation, but motivation is hard to maximize, and schools don’t do a great job. Is there a better way? Maybe. But to design a better education system, we first need to understand what the current system does well. Don’t tear down the fence until you understand why it’s there. The basic structure of age-graded schools that teach the same content to students of a given age has a purpose. You might have your own ideas about what schools should do and how they should do it. You might have some good ideas. But attacking schools without understanding the basics of how they function will never change anything.

One central contradiction of schools is that schools themselves don’t understand the purpose of age-graded schooling very well. There’s constant rhetoric from teachers and school leaders about the need to meet students where they are, to move past our antiquated one-size-fits-all education system and innovate. The purpose of this essay is to review school: to understand how it works, and where its structure comes from. This review leads me to a prediction: the structure of schooling won’t change. People will continue to try to disrupt the status quo. There will be plenty of tinkering around the edges. Some of that tinkering will catch on at a broader scale. But there will be an inevitable gravity back to the status quo. That gravity exists because the status quo is the best tool we have to educate a huge number of students. It’s not particularly good at fostering learning, but at scale it’s better than anything else we’ve tried. The push and pull will continue, the criticisms of school will continue, the experimenting will continue, but the basic structure will never change.

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This section is drawn from the book Someone Has to Fail by David Labaree.



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francisga
199 days ago
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Lafayette, LA, USA
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